To every manager, there is bound to be a problem in his management system. Finding a solution to the problem for many may create another problem, which brings to mind the problem of decision-making. This paper describes decision-making as the process by which a course of action is selected as a decision and how problems way to deal with a specific problem.
It explains that the processes involved can easily be overcome without causing much damage to the organisation by the decision-maker. It also explains methods of practising the decision process, which includes an operational research system, decision tree method, and Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)method.
It finally describes the criteria for improving the effectiveness of problem-solving,w hich includes the personality of the manager, the standard of his managerial skills, and his interest in the organisation’s policy.
The importance of decision-making in the administration of organisations has been recognised since the writings of Barhard in 1938, Simon in 1947, and Bross in 1953.Thee influence of these writers has been felt in the field of educational management as well as elsewhere. There are different conceptualisations of decision-making. Newman and Summer use the expression “decision-making” as a synonym for ‘planning’. Dorsey (1957) viewed the decision process as an extension of a series of interrelated communication events. Simon (1947)conceived decision-making” as though it were synonymous with managing”
A decision can be defined as a conscious choice made from among a well-defined set of often competing alternatives. The sequence of activities called decision-making results in the selection of a course of action from alternative courses intended to bring about the future state of affairs envisaged. At least two alternatives must be available in the process, and at timess the possible choices are far more numerous. The output of the decisional process is rules or policies to guide subsequent behaviour.
The importance attached to decision-making lies in its influence over subsequent behaviour in an organisation. Hence, Barnard thinks that acts of decision-making are characteristic of an organisation’s behaviour, and that the description of the process of decision-making is relatively more important to the understanding of an organisation’s behaviour than in the case of an individual.
A decision by the school administrator commits the school to a course of action. If it is a questionable action, the system may sufferr and the decision rendered is called a poor one. Decision-making is a sequential process that culminates in a single decision or a series of choices that stimulate moves or actions.
Decision-making may be considered a culminating activity, or the final phase,se surrendering a choice among alternatives, plus all activities that occur before it. When Simon (1947) declared that decision-making was synonymous with managing, then referred to the whole process, which includes finding an occasion for making a decision, identifying possible courses of action, and choosing among many different courses of action.
Decision-making can be considered synonymous with politics as well as management; some political scientist defines politics as making and executing authoritative decisions for society. Economists, political scientists, statisticians, psychologists and behavioural scientists, management scientists, specialists in operations research, and systems analysts also express a lively interest in writing and research in the area. The economist’s long-standing interest stems from how consumers make choices and how economic organisations determine the most promising course of action.
Types of decision
Simon (1947) offered ed taxonomy based on programmed and non-programmed decisions. The two classifications were not intended to be mutually exclusive but rather represented two points on a continuum ranging from highly programmed decisions at one end to highly unprogrammed decisions at the other.
Programmed decisions are used in basically repetitive and routine activities, that i , when definite procedures can be worked out. Such decisions cover the regular operational or routine problems of an organisation that do not need a unique response for each recurrence.
In contrast,non-programmed decisions encompass novel and unstructured issues where standard operating procedures may not apply because the situation is new or because too many variables are involved. Non-programmed decision-making situations are those for which the decision-maker must rely on intelligent, adaptive, or problem-oriented behaviour.
Decision processes: A theoretical model
Adopted from various related examples of decision-making, the schematic diagram above shows the steps of decision-making in solving a problem. It is a decision-making system that can be used by good decision-makers. This system involves the following process:
- Have an objective in mind to achieve
- Getting all the relevant facts
- Identify the problem (and its causes)
- Develop some solutions, with options.
- Predict the effects and screen the option through the criteria.
- Setting up some controls to ensure that the decision will work, and
- Setting up some insurance action to prevent failure in the form of control and accepting the decision taken.
Let us now consider each of the steps to see the application in a real-life situation.
Setting objectives
The first step in decision-making and problem-solving systematically is to define the objectives. Objectives are statements of expected outputs; they are defined before inputs are released, and they determine which activities and processes to use and what inputs will be required.
There are three classes of objectivess routine objectives,problem-solving objectives and innovative or improvement objectives. The regular or routine objectives are necessary statements for any organisation; they are ordinary functional requirements for the survival of the firm.
When any of these regular chores are undone, or done at less than required times causes the organisation to begin to decline, then a problem has been created. The problem then is to bring the actual level back up to the desired level.
Problem-solving objectives are createdson other not to worsen existing problems. Individual supervisors and managers can demonstrate their skills in managing precisely in the area of their job. Objectives of this type call for managerial and rational problem-solving skills of a higher order than the routine objectives and their maintenance.
The objectives are the objectives that make things happen. These are objectives that make a breakthrough rather than a restoration decision. They can only be made by persons having substantial managerial authority and are action decisions rather than decisions.
Gathering of facts
Facts are assumed to be unchanging, and everlasting; it is a condition which is indicated to be true. How then do we gather facts to help us make up our minds on issues? In the structured interview, the interviewer presumes that the person being interviewed has information or facts thattheye will divulge through the process of being asked questions.
The questions asked during the interview may fall into two categories: (1) major questions, which deal with the general topic to be covered as the interview progresses, (2)Clarification or expansionquestionsn, which expand upon the original response to gather more information.
In non-directive interviews, there is a need to develop a good rapport between the interviewer and the person to be interviewed. The meeting should be on neutral ground, and the seating should be such that there is no formidable barrier between the two people that might create a social distance.
Search for the optimal solution.
The search for an optimal solution is more or less a psychological process since it is work. A good method for developing alternative solutions is by
- Identifying results by interviewing variables and root causes.
- Separating from the conditional causes.
- Separating the vital few from the trivial many causes, and
- Following the three stages of innovation in developing new ideas.
Decision-making models: A weapon for management effectiveness
Criteria: A filter for options
This is a test of preparedness which aids in making decisive choices. The eternal things which we would like to see as the ideal outcome of any action we a, re for example, the contribution of the facts obtained tothel solution chosen by the demands of the situation, undesirable side effects- one articular problem creates another one.
Criteria may take different forms, which include gain to calculation ,.e. maximising gain than the loss to the organisation’s absolute cost, which is what the total cost of the choice will be to the organisation. Nevertheless, the preference of the investigator(manager)is also impimportanthich can be done by the choices in order of preference.
It is worth noting that decisions with a greater chance of failing should usually offer opportunities for greater rewards than those that have no such risk. The decision process is not completed until it is impimplementedoror important decisions to be implemented effectively, the decision maker has to seek and obtain the willing cooperation of all involved.
Factors involved in securing acceptance include effective communication, motivating the employees into accepting the decision and pointing out other advantages to be achieved, effective control of the process for the implementation of the decision and proper timing of events to aid coordination.
Methods and tools of practising decision process
In recent years, several techniques have been developed to aid the process of problem definition, of devising solution options and of evaluating their possible consequences. Since the majority of decisions have to be made in conditions of relative risks and uncertainty, any techniques which can help predict the future are worth having.
In earlier centuries,m en of power looked to soothsayers, prophets or gypsies for an indication of the future. Nowadays, we can look to the combined efforts of mathematicians, statisticians and computer specialists to help us forecast possible outcomes.
Operational research
This is one of the most significant sets of tools now available for decision-makers. This encompasses a collection of techniques which apply scientific methods to complex problems in organisations. It involves the use of scientific models, or conceptual frameworks, to represent real situations.
The modesutilisee mathematical and statistical terms to express the variables involved in a decision. Particular O.R. techniques include Network Analysis, Risk Analysis and Statistical Decision Theory. You can read the similar post on this page.
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